Pre-Primary Period: The Delayed Start

The 1992 campaign had different pacing than recent presidential campaigns. According to the Gallup poll, President Bush's job approval rating in March 1991 following the Gulf War reached 89% "the highest presidential job approval rating ever recorded to that date[1]." Bush's popularity in the first half of 1991  essentially froze pre-primary maneuvering for five to seven months, as would-be challengers adopted a wait-and-see approach. 

With the exception of former Sen. Paul Tsongas (April 30), the major Democratic candidates all announced in September and October 1991: Gov. Doug Wilder (Sept. 13), Sen Tom Harkin (Sept. 15), Sen. Bob Kerrey (Sept. 30), Gov. Bill Clinton (Oct. 3) and former Gov. Jerry Brown (Oct. 21).  On the Republican side, the incumbent George H.W. Bush discouraged all but a couple of GOP challengers, outgoing state Rep. David Duke (Dec. 4) and commentator Pat Buchanan (Dec. 10); Bush himself did not formally announce until Feb. 12.  Finally, the billionaire Ross Perot opened the door to a possible independent candidacy on Feb. 20, but remained an unannounced candidate through to his withdrawal in July.

In a more typical presidential cycle, many candidate announcements are made from February to June of the year preceding the New Hampshire primary while a few other candidates  enter the race late in the year. 

Timing of 1992 Candidate Announcement Speeches:
 
REPUBLICANS


Dec. 1991     
Jan. 1992 Feb. 

4-Duke
10-Buchanan
12-Bush

DEMOCRATS
1990         
Jan. 1991
 Feb.
Mar.
 Apr.
 May
 Jun.
 Jul.
 Aug.
 Sept.
 Oct.
 Nov.     
Dec.              




30-Tsongas


22-Agran
 		13-Wilder
15-Harkin
30-Kerrey
 		3-Clinton
21-Brown
 		                 


              


Timing of 1988 Candidate Announcement Speeches:
REPUBLICANS
1986
 Jan. 1987
 Feb.
 Mar.
 Apr.
 May
 Jun.
 Jul.
 Aug.
 Sept.
 Oct.
 Nov.      
9/16-du Pont

6-Kemp
24-Haig





2-Robertson
12-Bush
9-Dole

DEMOCRATS
1986
 Jan. 1987
 Feb.
 Mar.
 Apr.
 May
 Jun.
 Jul.
 Aug.
 Sept.
 Oct.
 Nov.      
Dec...... 


23-Gephardt 10-Babbitt
16-Dukakis
13-Hart 18-Simon 9-Biden
29-Gore


10-Jackson
*20-Hart


Overview of the Primary Field

In addition to being the incumbent, President Bush stood apart from the field for his privileged background, as a member of the World War II generation, and for the breadth of his experience. Bush's father was an investment banker and served in the U.S. Senate. Bush served in the U.S. Navy during World War II, flying 58 missions.  After graduating from Yale, Bush moved to Texas to set out on his own and worked in the oil industry.  He was elected to Congress in 1966 and subsequently served as U.S. Ambassador to the UN, chairman of the RNC, chief of the U.S. Liaison Office to the People's Republic of China, and Director of Central Intelligence, before being tabbed by Ronald Reagan as his running mate in 1980  After two terms as Vice President and one term as President, Bush was seeking a second term.  He was 68 years and 7 months on Inauguration Day 1993.  While he had many advantages, "the vision thing" was a weakness for Bush dating to his 1988 campaign.[2] 

By contrast, Pat Buchanan, Bush's main Republican challenger, espoused a clear conservative message honed over decades as a columnist and commentator.  Buchanan started his political career as a researcher, speechwriter and assistant to Richard Nixon, but had not sought or served in elective office.  He was a bit more than 54 years old on Inauguration Day 1993.

On the Democratic side, the five major candidates who engaged in primaries were relatively young: Clinton (46 years, 5 months on Inauguration Day 1993), Kerrey (49 years, 5 months), Tsongas (51 years, 11 months), Harkin (53 years, 2 months), and Brown (54 years, 9 months).  Wilder (62 years) withdrew before the first contest.  Brown, Clinton, Harkin, Tsongas and Wilder all had legal backgrounds.  All the major Democratic candidates had significant experience in elective office; Clinton, Kerrey and Harkin were current officeholders.  Kerrey, Harkin and Wilder served in the military.  


Notes.
1. RJ Reinhart. "George H.W. Bush Retrospective."  Gallup,  Dec. 1, 2018.

2. Robert Ajemian.  "Where Is the Real George Bush?"  Time, Jan. 26,  1987.



ADVERTISEMENT